Project 3.1

Modelling outcomes for high-risk patients contemplating major surgery

A series of computational models using evidence from Projects 1 and 2 will forecast patient-centred outcomes. In addition to modelling patient-outcomes using NHS registry data, we will use detailed patient level information on quality of life outcomes after major surgery. Together these outcomes will cover functional status (e.g. mobility, mood, pain), major health events (e.g. stroke), new chronic disease and death.

Predictions based on treatment choice will be available (i.e. surgery versus non-surgical management) and will consider co-morbid disease progression as well as the primary success of surgery. The forecast will include at least a one-year period after surgery.